{"id":8287,"date":"2024-07-10T11:20:55","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T11:20:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ccib.ro\/afacerea\/?p=8287"},"modified":"2024-07-10T11:23:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T11:23:00","slug":"economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Economia mondial\u0103, perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pdfprnt-buttons pdfprnt-buttons-post pdfprnt-top-right\"><a href=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8287?print=pdf\" class=\"pdfprnt-button pdfprnt-button-pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ccib.ro\/afacerea\/wp-content\/plugins\/pdf-print\/images\/pdf.png\" alt=\"image_pdf\" title=\"View PDF\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8287?print=print\" class=\"pdfprnt-button pdfprnt-button-print\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ccib.ro\/afacerea\/wp-content\/plugins\/pdf-print\/images\/print.png\" alt=\"image_print\" title=\"Print Content\" \/><\/a><\/div><p>\u00cen cel mai recent barometru al riscurilor sectoriale \u0219i de \u021bar\u0103, Coface a actualizat prognoza de cre\u0219tere global\u0103 la 2,5% pentru 2024 \u0219i la 2,7% pentru 2025. Totodat\u0103, a modificat evalu\u0103rile pentru 5 \u021b\u0103ri (patru \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i o retrogradare) \u0219i 26 de sectoare (20 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i 6 retrograd\u0103ri), reflect\u00e2nd o perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Europa d\u0103 semne de ie\u0219ire din recesiune<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00cen primul trimestru al anului curent, \u00een SUA s-a \u00eenregistrat o \u00eencetinire a activit\u0103\u021bii, \u00eens\u0103 cifrele de pe pia\u021ba muncii par s\u0103 fi revenit la nivelurile de dinainte de pandemie, indic\u00e2nd un echilibru mai bun \u00eentre cererea \u0219i oferta de munc\u0103. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te China, revenirea economic\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne inegal\u0103. Potrivit Coface, PIB-ul a dep\u0103\u0219it a\u0219tept\u0103rile \u00een primul trimestru al anului 2024, datorit\u0103 investi\u021biilor \u00een produc\u021bie, exacerb\u00e2nd, \u00eens\u0103, \u00eengrijor\u0103rile cu privire la supracapacitatea de produc\u021bie, \u00een contextul cererii interne slabe. Europa d\u0103 semne de ie\u0219ire din recesiune, cu o cre\u0219tere a PIB-ului de 0,3% \u00een primul trimestru al anului 2024 \u0219i cu o activitate accelerat\u0103, datorat\u0103 sectorului serviciilor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00cencetine\u0219te dezinfla\u021bia<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00cen SUA, procesul de dezinfla\u021bie a \u00eencetinit, din cauza pre\u021burilor ridicate la servicii \u0219i locuin\u021be. Astfel, infla\u021bia PCE (Indicele Personal Consumption Expenditures ia \u00een considerare datele de pre\u021b furnizate de companii) se situeaz\u0103 la 2,7%, peste \u021binta de 2% a Rezervei Federale a SUA (Fed). Dincoace de ocean, \u00een Europa, infla\u021bia a revenit \u00een mai la 2,6%, dup\u0103 ce a sc\u0103zut la 2,4% \u00een aprilie datorit\u0103 diminu\u0103rii pre\u021burilor alimentelor \u0219i m\u0103rfurilor neprocesate. \u201e\u00cen timp ce cre\u0219terea probabil\u0103 a salariilor ar trebui s\u0103 stimuleze consumul, aceasta va \u00eencetini dezinfla\u021bia. Dac\u0103 infla\u021bia va continua s\u0103 scad\u0103 la aproximativ 2%, va trebui s\u0103 fac\u0103 acest lucru cu pre\u021bul unei deterior\u0103ri a pie\u021bei muncii \u0219i a marjelor opera\u021bionale ale companiilor \u0219i cu riscul unei cre\u0219teri suplimentare a insolven\u021belor\u201d, atrag aten\u021bia speciali\u0219tii Coface.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Relaxare \u00eent\u00e2rziat\u0103 a Fed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Conform sursei citate, pie\u021bele se a\u0219teapt\u0103 acum doar la una sau dou\u0103 reduceri de dob\u00e2nd\u0103, reflect\u00e2nd atitudinea prudent\u0103 a Fed. Cele mai recente previziuni ale factorilor de decizie monetar\u0103 din SUA indic\u0103 o sc\u0103dere a dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u021b\u0103 spre sf\u00e2r\u0219itul verii, sau chiar spre sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului, \u00een timp ce Banca Central\u0103 European\u0103 (BCE) a lansat relaxarea monetar\u0103 cu o prim\u0103 reducere de 25 de puncte de baz\u0103 (pb) la \u00eenceputul lunii iunie.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen contextul calendarului \u00eent\u00e2rziat al Fed, speciali\u0219tii Coface apreciaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u021b\u0103rile emergente vor \u00eencetini sau vor \u00eent\u00e2rzia ciclul de reducere a ratelor pentru a evita o revenire a infla\u021biei prin importuri. De exemplu, Brazilia \u0219i-a redus rata cheie cu doar 25 pb \u00een mai, dup\u0103 6 reduceri consecutive de 50 pb. Totodat\u0103, am\u00e2narea Fed va condi\u021biona \u0219i politicile monetare din Africa \u0219i Asia. Cu toate acestea, potrivit Barometrului Coface, multe regiuni se vor bucura de un impuls pozitiv. De exemplu, se apreciaz\u0103 c\u0103 Vietnam \u0219i Filipine vor atinge rate de cre\u0219tere de peste 6%, iar India, 6,1%, \u00een ciuda unei u\u0219oare \u00eencetiniri. De asemenea, Africa urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219easc\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 4%, cu o accelerare \u00een toate economiile majore (Nigeria, Egipt, Algeria, Etiopia, Maroc \u0219i, \u00eentr-o m\u0103sur\u0103 mai mic\u0103, Africa de Sud).<\/p>\n<p><strong>M\u0103surile protec\u021bioniste, \u00een actualitate<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00cen cel mai recent Barometru, Coface atrage aten\u021bia asupra m\u0103surilor protec\u021bioniste luate de marii actori economici \u0219i a impactului acestora. Astfel, la jum\u0103tatea lunii mai, \u00een SUA a fost anun\u021bat\u0103 cre\u0219terea taxelor vamale la importurile de m\u0103rfuri chineze\u0219ti. Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 decizia actualei administra\u021bii, campania candidatului Trump care promite c\u0103 va pune \u00een aplicare tarife globale de 10% alimenteaz\u0103 \u0219i mai mult preocup\u0103rile legate de politica comercial\u0103 a SUA. Ulterior, \u00een prima parte a lunii iunie, Uniunea European\u0103 a adoptat m\u0103suri asem\u0103n\u0103toare, impun\u00e2nd o taxare suplimentar\u0103 cu p\u00e2n\u0103 la 38% a vehiculelor electrice din China. \u021a\u0103ri precum India \u0219i Brazilia au luat deja decizii similare, cresc\u00e2nd riscul unor tensiuni comerciale globale. \u00cen acest context, conform Coface, principalele \u021b\u0103ri beneficiare ar putea fi Mexic \u0219i Vietnam. \u201e\u00centr-un context geopolitic din ce \u00een ce mai incert, o escaladare a barierelor vamale ar \u00eensemna costuri mai mari pentru \u00eentreprinderi, contribuind la cre\u0219terea riscului infla\u021bionist\u201d, atrag aten\u021bia speciali\u0219tii Coface.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>C. \u0218ERB\u0102NESCU<br \/>\n<\/strong><a href=\"mailto:cristina.serbanescu@ccib.ro\"><strong>cristina.serbanescu@ccib.ro<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00cen cel mai recent barometru al riscurilor sectoriale \u0219i de \u021bar\u0103, Coface a actualizat prognoza de cre\u0219tere global\u0103 la 2,5% pentru 2024 \u0219i la 2,7% pentru 2025. Totodat\u0103, a modificat evalu\u0103rile pentru 5 \u021b\u0103ri (patru \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i o retrogradare) \u0219i 26 de sectoare (20 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i 6 retrograd\u0103ri), reflect\u00e2nd o perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-din-lumea-afacerilor","issue-serie-noua-nr-36-10-07-2024-06-08-2024"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Economia mondial\u0103, perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt - Afacerea<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economia mondial\u0103, perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt - Afacerea\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00cen cel mai recent barometru al riscurilor sectoriale \u0219i de \u021bar\u0103, Coface a actualizat prognoza de cre\u0219tere global\u0103 la 2,5% pentru 2024 \u0219i la 2,7% pentru 2025. Totodat\u0103, a modificat evalu\u0103rile pentru 5 \u021b\u0103ri (patru \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i o retrogradare) \u0219i 26 de sectoare (20 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i 6 retrograd\u0103ri), reflect\u00e2nd o perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Afacerea\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-10T11:20:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-10T11:23:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/facebook-cover.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u0218erb\u0103nescu Cristina\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scris de\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u0218erb\u0103nescu Cristina\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Timp estimat pentru citire\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/\",\"name\":\"Economia mondial\u0103, perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt - Afacerea\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-07-10T11:20:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-07-10T11:23:00+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/#\/schema\/person\/ceb65c8cc8ed64d512809cf287a5c09f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Prima pagin\u0103\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/?issue=serie-noua-nr-41-15-01-01-2025-14-02-2025\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Economia mondial\u0103, perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/\",\"name\":\"Afacerea\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/#\/schema\/person\/ceb65c8cc8ed64d512809cf287a5c09f\",\"name\":\"\u0218erb\u0103nescu Cristina\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4cd5c0bd17d39883f148ea9bb5d3745b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4cd5c0bd17d39883f148ea9bb5d3745b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"\u0218erb\u0103nescu Cristina\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/author\/cristina-serbanescu\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Economia mondial\u0103, perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt - Afacerea","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/economia-mondiala-perspectiva-favorabila-pe-termen-scurt-2\/","og_locale":"ro_RO","og_type":"article","og_title":"Economia mondial\u0103, perspectiv\u0103 favorabil\u0103 pe termen scurt - Afacerea","og_description":"\u00cen cel mai recent barometru al riscurilor sectoriale \u0219i de \u021bar\u0103, Coface a actualizat prognoza de cre\u0219tere global\u0103 la 2,5% pentru 2024 \u0219i la 2,7% pentru 2025. 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