{"id":7743,"date":"2024-03-05T07:26:47","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T07:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ccib.ro\/afacerea\/?p=7743"},"modified":"2024-03-05T10:27:27","modified_gmt":"2024-03-05T10:27:27","slug":"tarile-emergente-principalele-motoare-ale-economiei-globale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/tarile-emergente-principalele-motoare-ale-economiei-globale\/","title":{"rendered":"\u021a\u0103rile emergente, principalele motoare ale economiei globale"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"image_pdf\"<\/a>\"image_print\"<\/a><\/div>

Dup\u0103 un 2023 oarecum turbulent, dar mai bun dec\u00e2t se a\u0219tepta, 2024 se prefigureaz\u0103 ca un an incert, at\u00e2t din punct de vedere (geo)politic, cu peste 60 de alegeri na\u021bionale (preziden\u021biale \u0219i\/sau legislative), c\u00e2t \u0219i din punct de vedere economic, cu riscuri \u00een cre\u0219tere \u00eentr-o economie global\u0103 care \u00eencetine\u0219te. \u00cen acest context, \u00een cel mai recent Barometru al riscurilor sectoriale \u0219i de \u021bar\u0103, Coface a modificat 13 evalu\u0103ri ale riscului de \u021bar\u0103 (12 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i 1 retrogradare) \u0219i 22 evalu\u0103ri ale riscului sectorial (17 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri \u0219i 5 retrograd\u0103ri), reflect\u00e2nd o \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021bire semnificativ\u0103 a perspectivelor de evolu\u021bie \u00eentr-un mediu care r\u0103m\u00e2ne extrem de instabil \u0219i nesigur.<\/p>\n

Cre\u0219terea global\u0103 rezist\u0103 presiunilor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pentru al treilea an consecutiv, economia mondial\u0103 va \u00eencetini p\u00e2n\u0103 la 2,2% \u00een 2024, dup\u0103 2,6% anul trecut. Potrivit Coface, chiar dac\u0103 lucrurile par s\u0103 fie pe drumul cel bun \u00een SUA, activitatea economic\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 continue s\u0103 scad\u0103 \u00een prima jum\u0103tate a anului, pe fondul diminu\u0103rii cheltuielilor gospod\u0103riilor, \u00een contextul \u00een care stocul de economii \u00een exces acumulat \u00een timpul pandemiei \u2013 \u00een mare parte epuizat \u2013 va continua s\u0103 scad\u0103.<\/p>\n

Economia chinez\u0103, care p\u0103rea c\u0103 \u0219i-a rec\u0103p\u0103tat ritmul de evolu\u021bie \u00een a doua jum\u0103tate a anului 2023, \u00eencheind anul cu o cre\u0219tere a PIB-ului de 5,2%, pu\u021bin peste \u021binta oficial\u0103 de cre\u0219tere, stagneaz\u0103 la \u00eenceputul acestui an. Revenirea consumului r\u0103m\u00e2ne fragil\u0103, iar preocup\u0103rile legate de corec\u021bia pie\u021bei imobiliare, solu\u021bionarea datoriei publice locale \u0219i presiunile defla\u021bioniste continu\u0103 s\u0103 afecteze investi\u021biile private \u0219i sentimentul consumatorilor.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e2ndul ei, economia b\u0103tr\u00e2nului continent va fi \u0219i ea \u00a0marcat\u0103 de stagnare \u00een prima jum\u0103tate a anului, \u00een contextul \u00een care industria prelucr\u0103toare continu\u0103 s\u0103 fie afectat\u0103 de costuri ridicate \u0219i cerere extern\u0103 lent\u0103.<\/p>\n

Infla\u021bia \u0219i ratele dob\u00e2nzilor: un mediu advers pentru companii<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cen ciuda unei sc\u0103deri \u00een 2023 \u0219i a unei tendin\u021be pozitive pe termen scurt, infla\u021bia de baz\u0103 este \u00eenc\u0103 de dou\u0103 ori peste \u021binta b\u0103ncii centrale \u00een majoritatea zonelor monetare dezvoltate. Conform Coface, provocarea pentru 2024 const\u0103 \u00een a urm\u0103ri dac\u0103 \u00een\u0103sprirea monetar\u0103 din ultimele 18 luni este suficient\u0103 pentru a reduce \u0219i men\u021bine infla\u021bia la 2%.<\/p>\n

Pia\u021ba tensionat\u0103 a muncii, cu rate ale \u0219omajului sub nivelul lor structural, niveluri istorice ale locurilor de munc\u0103 vacante \u0219i dinamica sus\u021binut\u0103 a salariilor, sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 b\u0103t\u0103lia nu a fost c\u00e2\u0219tigat\u0103, indiferent de eventualele \u0219ocuri de ofert\u0103 care ar putea ap\u0103rea \u00een mediul geopolitic actual.<\/p>\n

Ratele de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 cu care s-au obi\u0219nuit to\u021bi agen\u021bii \u2013 gospod\u0103rii, \u00eentreprinderi \u0219i guverne \u2013 \u00een ultimii cincisprezece ani sunt acum de domeniul trecutului, ratele urm\u00e2nd s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 ridicate pe tot parcursul anului \u00een toate economiile avansate. A\u0219tept\u0103rile pie\u021bei de reduceri succesive de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 pe parcursul anului par excesive, pe ambele maluri ale Atlanticului. \u00cen Europa, \u00een ciuda impulsului slab al activit\u0103\u021bii, presiunile infla\u021bioniste de baz\u0103 nu ar trebui s\u0103 permit\u0103 BCE \u0219i B\u0103ncii Angliei s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103 relaxarea monetar\u0103 \u00eenainte, \u00een cel mai bun caz, de vara lui 2024.<\/p>\n

\u00cen opinia speciali\u0219tilor Coface, acest mediu economic nefavorabil va men\u021bine companiile \u00eentr-o situa\u021bie dificil\u0103. O accelerare brusc\u0103 a num\u0103rului de insolven\u021be este, prin urmare, unul dintre principalele riscuri negative pentru scenariul de baz\u0103 Coface.<\/p>\n

Economiile emergente stimuleaz\u0103 cre\u0219terea global\u0103, dar eterogen<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cen 2024, \u021b\u0103rile emergente vor fi principalele motoare ale economiei globale, contribuind cu 1,7 puncte procentuale la cre\u0219terea de 2,2% a PIB-ului mondial. Economiile emergente vor reprezenta, a\u0219adar, trei sferturi din cre\u0219terea global\u0103, cea mai mare din 2013. Asia de Sud-Est va fi din nou una dintre cele mai dinamice regiuni, cu o cre\u0219tere de 4,6%, dup\u0103 4% anul trecut. Cele mai s\u0103race \u0219i mai \u00eendatorate \u021b\u0103ri se vor confrunta cu dificult\u0103\u021bi mai mari. Cu rate ale dob\u00e2nzilor ridicate \u0219i un dolar puternic, o reapari\u021bie a default-urilor suverane este posibil\u0103. Unele \u021b\u0103ri, precum Sri Lanka, Ghana, Etiopia, Malawi, Pakistan \u0219i Laos sunt deja \u00een faliment sau \u00een prag de faliment.<\/p>\n

Tensiunile din Marea Ro\u0219ie scumpesc transportul maritim<\/strong><\/p>\n

Instabilitatea din regiunea M\u0103rii Ro\u0219ii este o amenin\u021bare major\u0103 pentru traficul maritim. \u00cen acest context, majoritatea companiilor de transport maritim evit\u0103 deja Canalul Suez, cea mai rapid\u0103 rut\u0103 maritim\u0103 care leag\u0103 Asia de Europa \u0219i opteaz\u0103 pentru Capul Bunei Speran\u021be, ocolind continentul african, ceea ce adaug\u0103 peste zece zile la durata c\u0103l\u0103toriei. Pentru cei care continu\u0103 s\u0103 foloseasc\u0103 ruta prin canalul Suez, costurile de securitate \u0219i asigur\u0103ri cresc vertiginos. Pentru a compensa aceste costuri, transportatorii \u00ee\u0219i redirec\u021bioneaz\u0103 navele c\u0103tre rutele comerciale europene \u0219i mediteraneene, ceea ce reduce spa\u021biul disponibil pentru m\u0103rfurile care trec prin rutele transpacifice \u0219i nord-sud, reflect\u00e2ndu-se \u00een tarife mai mari.<\/p>\n

\u00cen ciuda cre\u0219terilor tarifelor de transport (care s-au dublat sau chiar s-au triplat pe unele rute de la Shanghai c\u0103tre Europa), acestea sunt \u00eenc\u0103, \u00een medie, sub nivelurile record de la \u00eenceputul lui 2022. Deocamdat\u0103, impactul infla\u021bionist va fi izolat \u2013 de ordinul a 0,1 puncte de infla\u021bie la nivel global (0,2 puncte \u00een Europa) \u0219i nu pare de natur\u0103 s\u0103 deraieze scenariul central Coface. (C.\u0218.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dup\u0103 un 2023 oarecum turbulent, dar mai bun dec\u00e2t se a\u0219tepta, 2024 se prefigureaz\u0103 ca un an incert, at\u00e2t din punct de vedere (geo)politic, cu peste 60 de alegeri na\u021bionale (preziden\u021biale \u0219i\/sau legislative), c\u00e2t \u0219i din punct de vedere economic, cu riscuri \u00een cre\u0219tere \u00eentr-o economie global\u0103 care \u00eencetine\u0219te. \u00cen acest context, \u00een cel mai…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-din-lumea-afacerilor","issue-serie-noua-nr-32-01-03-2024-03-04-2024"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u021a\u0103rile emergente, principalele motoare ale economiei globale - Afacerea<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/tarile-emergente-principalele-motoare-ale-economiei-globale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u021a\u0103rile emergente, principalele motoare ale economiei globale - 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