{"id":7633,"date":"2024-02-07T08:51:41","date_gmt":"2024-02-07T08:51:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ccib.ro\/afacerea\/?p=7633"},"modified":"2024-02-07T10:19:31","modified_gmt":"2024-02-07T10:19:31","slug":"cresterea-economica-influentata-de-ratele-ridicate-ale-dobanzilor-si-de-incertitudinea-politicilor-publice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/cresterea-economica-influentata-de-ratele-ridicate-ale-dobanzilor-si-de-incertitudinea-politicilor-publice\/","title":{"rendered":"Cre\u0219terea economic\u0103, influen\u021bat\u0103 de ratele ridicate ale dob\u00e2nzilor \u0219i de incertitudinea politicilor publice"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pe fondul stabiliz\u0103rii ratei de cre\u0219tere a comer\u021bului global \u00een ultimii ani, determinat\u0103 par\u021bial de pandemie, de tensiuni geopolitice \u0219i de m\u0103suri protec\u021bioniste tot mai ample, raportul KPMG Global Economic Outlook lanseaz\u0103 un avertisment cu privire la poten\u021biale pierderi de produc\u021bie generate de fragmentarea geoeconomic\u0103 pe termen lung. Potrivit sursei citate, se estimeaz\u0103 o cre\u0219tere a PIB-ului global de 2,2% \u00een 2024 \u2013 \u00een sc\u0103dere de la 2,6% \u00een 2023, cu revenire ulterioar\u0103 pe o pant\u0103 ascendent\u0103 \u015fi o cre\u015ftere anticipat\u0103 de 2,6% \u00een 2025.<\/p>\n

Realizat de economi\u0219ti din firmele membre KPMG din \u00eentreaga lume, raportul din acest an analizeaz\u0103 perspectivele economice pentru 37 de \u021b\u0103ri \u0219i zone economice, inclusiv Rom\u00e2nia, precum \u0219i poten\u021bialul economiei mondiale pentru urm\u0103torii doi ani.<\/p>\n

\u201eCele mai recente prognoze din raportul KPMG Global Economic Outlook reflect\u0103 factorii multipli care stau la baza incertitudinii \u0219i a cre\u0219terii lente \u00een \u00eentreaga lume. Pe termen scurt, infla\u021bia se poate relaxa, \u00eens\u0103 cu un cost, cheltuielile consumatorilor sc\u0103z\u00e2nd \u0219i costul datoriei cresc\u00e2nd. Companiile trebuie s\u0103 navigheze \u00eentr-un mediu geopolitic \u00een schimbare: noi preferin\u021be de lucru hibrid, adoptarea ESG, precum \u0219i tehnologii emergente, cum ar fi Inteligen\u021ba Artificial\u0103 \u0219i Big Data. Toate aceste schimb\u0103ri necesit\u0103 investi\u021bii sporite, dar cele mai multe dintre acestea ar putea \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021bi productivitatea \u0219i rata de cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 pe termen lung\u201d, a declarat Yael Selfin, Vice Chair, Chief Economist KPMG \u00een Marea Britanie.<\/p>\n

Cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 mai slab\u0103 a ajutat la atenuarea presiunilor pe lan\u021burile de aprovizionare \u0219i la diminuarea presiunilor mai ample exercitate asupra costurilor. Conform sursei citate, se estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 infla\u021bia global\u0103 va fi \u00een medie de 5% \u00een 2024 \u0219i 3,9% \u00een 2025, \u00een sc\u0103dere de la rata de 6,5% estimat\u0103 \u00een 2023 \u0219i 8% \u00een 2022. Pe de alt\u0103 parte, economi\u0219tii KPMG atrag aten\u021bia c\u0103 riscurile sunt \u00een cre\u0219tere, deoarece orice alte \u0219ocuri asupra pre\u021burilor la energie sau o cre\u0219tere mai persistent\u0103 a infla\u021biei autohtone \u00een unele \u021b\u0103ri ar putea deraia revenirea relativ lin\u0103 c\u0103tre \u021bintele de infla\u021bie ale b\u0103ncilor centrale \u00een anul viitor.<\/p>\n

Relaxarea politicilor monetare se las\u0103 a\u0219teptat\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

De\u0219i politica monetar\u0103 a atins \u00een mare m\u0103sur\u0103 apogeul ciclului actual de \u00een\u0103sprire, autorii Raportului puncteaz\u0103 c\u0103 este posibil ca multe b\u0103nci centrale s\u0103 mai a\u015ftepte \u00eenainte de a ini\u0163ia un nou ciclu de relaxare. Estim\u0103rile KPMG arat\u0103 c\u0103 majoritatea b\u0103ncilor centrale \u2013 inclusiv Fed-ul SUA \u0219i Banca Angliei \u2013 nu vor ac\u021biona o mare parte din 2024, stabilind ratele la un nivel semnificativ mai ridicat, pe termen mediu, dec\u00e2t \u00een deceniul anterior pandemiei de Covid.<\/p>\n

\u201eMulte b\u0103nci centrale se afl\u0103 \u00eentre ciocan \u015fi nicoval\u0103 \u0219i sunt precaute, con\u015ftiente c\u0103 o relaxare prematur\u0103 ar putea duce pur \u0219i simplu la o revenire a infla\u021biei. De\u0219i nu anticip\u0103m nicio modificare semnificativ\u0103 a cifrelor \u0219omajului, 2024 ar putea fi un an potrivit pentru evaluarea impactului condi\u021biilor economice restrictive pentru lumea corporativ\u0103. Un val de refinan\u021bare a datoriilor, \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 deosebit de dificil\u0103, ar putea pune o presiune real\u0103 asupra liderilor de afaceri care caut\u0103 solu\u0163ii la crizele prelungite din ultimele luni. Acest fapt, combinat cu incertitudinea geopolitic\u0103 curent\u0103, ar putea genera o situa\u0163ie de paralizie pentru mul\u0163i \u00een anul care urmeaz\u0103\u201d, a apreciat Regina Mayor, Global Head of Clients & Markets la KPMG International.<\/p>\n

Perspective provocatoare pe plan global \u0219i european<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eLa nivel global, perspectivele r\u0103m\u00e2n provocatoare, conflictul din Orientul Mijlociu ad\u0103ug\u00e2ndu-se incertitudinii. Perturbarea rutei de transport maritim a Canalului Suez, care afecteaz\u0103 lan\u021burile de aprovizionare, este un motiv de \u00eengrijorare, mai ales prin prisma transporturilor de bunuri \u00een containere \u0219i de petrol. Cu toate acestea, \u00een ultimii ani, companiile s-au confruntat cu o incertitudine considerabil\u0103 \u0219i mul\u021bi lideri au dezvoltat un sentiment real de rezilien\u021b\u0103 \u0219i agilitate, care le-a permis nu numai s\u0103 navigheze \u00een ape tulburi, ci \u0219i s\u0103 prospere, prin stimularea inov\u0103rii\u201d, a precizat Ramona Jurubi\u021b\u0103, Country Managing Partner, KPMG \u00een Rom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n

\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te \u021bara noastr\u0103, dup\u0103 o cre\u015ftere puternic\u0103 de 5% \u00een primele trei trimestre ale anului 2022, economia a \u00eencetinit brusc, avans\u00e2nd cu 1,4% \u00een aceea\u015fi perioad\u0103 a anului 2023. Infla\u021bia ridicat\u0103 a erodat puterea de cump\u0103rare a gospod\u0103riilor, \u00eencetinind astfel consumul privat, care a fost principalul motor al cre\u0219terii economice \u00een ultimii ani. Chiar \u0219i a\u0219a, economia Rom\u00e2niei a avut una dintre cele mai mari rate de cre\u0219tere din regiune, estimat\u0103 la 1,8% \u00een 2023. Comparativ, pentru anul trecut, cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 este prognozat\u0103 la doar 0,4% \u00een Polonia, \u00een timp ce \u00een Cehia se a\u0219teapt\u0103 o contrac\u0163ie de 0,5%. \u00cen 2024 se preconizeaz\u0103 o redresare treptat\u0103 \u00een toate cele trei economii. Investi\u021biile sunt v\u0103zute ca fiind unul dintre principalele motoare ale cre\u0219terii economice, sus\u021binut\u0103 de proiecte de infrastructur\u0103, transformare digital\u0103 \u0219i tranzi\u021bie energetic\u0103. Consumul gospod\u0103riilor, care a decelerat \u00een 2023, \u0219i-ar putea m\u0103ri contribu\u021bia la PIB \u00een 2024 \u00een toate cele trei economii, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 decalajul dintre avansul salariilor nominale \u0219i infla\u021bie urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 creasc\u0103 din nou.<\/p>\n

\u00centorc\u00e2ndu-ne la Rom\u00e2nia, cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 a dep\u0103\u0219it-o pe cea a \u0163\u0103rilor din regiune, \u00een ciuda conflictului care are loc la grani\u021ba cu Ucraina. Infla\u021bia medie anual\u0103 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia a continuat s\u0103 scad\u0103 \u00een 2023, de\u0219i de la un nivel relativ ridicat. Este de a\u0219teptat ca aceast\u0103 tendin\u0163\u0103 s\u0103 continue \u015fi \u00een 2024 \u015fi infla\u0163ia s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la aproximativ 6,9%. Aceast\u0103 tendin\u021b\u0103 este similar\u0103 cu cea observat\u0103 \u015fi \u00een economiile din regiune. \u00cen Republica Ceh\u0103, infla\u021bia de baz\u0103 a sc\u0103zut semnificativ, dup\u0103 un v\u00e2rf de 18% la \u00eenceputul lui 2023. Acum se prognozeaz\u0103 c\u0103 va atinge 3,3% \u00een 2024 de la 10,8% \u00een 2023. \u00cen Polonia, a\u015ftept\u0103rile infla\u021bioniste sunt pentru o \u00eenjum\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire a acesteia, de la 11,6% \u00een 2023 la 5,6% \u00een 2024.<\/p>\n

Ratele \u0219omajului vor r\u0103m\u00e2ne la nivele sc\u0103zute \u00een toate cele trei \u021b\u0103ri pe termen mediu, fiind afectate negativ de tendin\u021bele demografice. \u00cen 2024 se preconizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 acestea vor fi \u00een jur de 5,4% \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, 5,1% \u00een Polonia \u0219i 2,8% \u00een Cehia.<\/p>\n

Perspectivele economice din Rom\u00e2nia, influen\u0163ate de modalit\u0103\u0163ile de corec\u0163ie a deficitului bugetar \u0219i a celui de cont current<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cPoten\u021bialul de cre\u0219tere al Rom\u00e2niei, pe viitor, r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicat \u0219i acest lucru poate fi pe deplin exploatat \u00eentr-un cadru \u00een care politicile fiscale \u0219i legislative sunt predictibile, precum \u0219i pun\u00e2nd accent pe \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021birea infrastructurii din \u021bar\u0103\u201d, a afirmat Ramona Jurubi\u021b\u0103, care a atras aten\u021bia c\u0103 incertitudinile legate de m\u0103surile fiscale, recent adoptate de c\u0103tre autorit\u0103\u0163i, au afectat negativ \u00eencrederea mediului de afaceri. \u201eCre\u0219terea TVA-ului pentru unele bunuri \u0219i servicii \u0219i accizele mai mari la carburan\u021bi, introducerea de noi taxe, inclusiv impozitul minim pe cifra de afaceri pentru companiile mari \u0219i impozitele suplimentare pentru institu\u021biile de credit \u00eempreun\u0103 cu cotele de impozitare crescute pe cifra de afaceri ne a\u0219tept\u0103m s\u0103 \u00eemping\u0103 infla\u021bia \u00een 2024 pe o traiectorie mai ridicat\u0103 dec\u00e2t era preconizat\u0103 initial \u0219i, \u00een plus, s\u0103 afecteze negativ cererea. De\u0219i economia urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 beneficieze de investi\u021bii semnificative, sus\u021binute din fonduri europene, exist\u0103 un mare semn de \u00eentrebare legat de modul \u00een care vor influen\u0163a aceste schimb\u0103ri fiscale, at\u00e2t cre\u0219terea economic\u0103, c\u00e2t \u0219i dezechilibrele macroeconomice pe termen scurt\u201d, a precizat Ramona Jurubi\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

C. \u0218ERB\u0102NESCU
\n<\/strong>cristina.serbanescu@ccib.ro<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pe fondul stabiliz\u0103rii ratei de cre\u0219tere a comer\u021bului global \u00een ultimii ani, determinat\u0103 par\u021bial de pandemie, de tensiuni geopolitice \u0219i de m\u0103suri protec\u021bioniste tot mai ample, raportul KPMG Global Economic Outlook lanseaz\u0103 un avertisment cu privire la poten\u021biale pierderi de produc\u021bie generate…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-din-lumea-afacerilor","issue-serie-noua-nr-31-31012024-29022024"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCre\u0219terea economic\u0103, influen\u021bat\u0103 de ratele ridicate ale dob\u00e2nzilor \u0219i de incertitudinea politicilor publice - Afacerea<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/cresterea-economica-influentata-de-ratele-ridicate-ale-dobanzilor-si-de-incertitudinea-politicilor-publice\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cre\u0219terea economic\u0103, influen\u021bat\u0103 de ratele ridicate ale dob\u00e2nzilor \u0219i de incertitudinea politicilor publice - 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