{"id":4394,"date":"2021-07-21T05:40:55","date_gmt":"2021-07-21T05:40:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ccib.ro\/afacerea\/?p=4394"},"modified":"2021-07-23T05:53:08","modified_gmt":"2021-07-23T05:53:08","slug":"barometru-coface-o-lume-in-schimbare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/barometru-coface-o-lume-in-schimbare\/","title":{"rendered":"Barometru Coface: O lume \u00een schimbare"},"content":{"rendered":"
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La 18 luni de la \u00eenceperea pandemiei, accesul la vaccinare este principalul factor care stabile\u0219te ritmul vie\u021bii de zi cu zi a oamenilor \u0219i al economiei globale, concluzioneaz\u0103 cel mai recent Barometru realizat de Coface.<\/p>\n

Europa \u0219i America de Nord \u00een 2022: spre sf\u00e2r\u0219itul stop-go-ului <\/strong><\/p>\n

Accelerarea campaniilor de vaccinare \u00een America de Nord \u0219i Europa, combinat\u0103 cu efectele restric\u021biilor de mobilitate din prim\u0103var\u0103, a dus la sc\u0103derea num\u0103rului de noi infec\u021bii \u00een aceste zone. Prin urmare, autorit\u0103\u021bile locale au putut redeschide p\u0103r\u021bi ale economiei \u00eenainte de var\u0103. Totu\u0219i, \u00een opinia speciali\u0219tilor Coface, dou\u0103 riscuri fac incert\u0103 continuarea acestei tendin\u021be pozitive, \u0219i anume: \u00eencetinirea ratei de vaccinare care, dac\u0103 va fi confirmat\u0103 \u00een lunile urm\u0103toare, va \u00eent\u00e2rzia realizarea imunit\u0103\u021bii colective \u0219i ridicarea pragului pentru ob\u021binerea imunit\u0103\u021bii de grup pe fondul apari\u021biei de noi tulpini, mult mai rapid transmisibile. Coface apreciaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care aceste dou\u0103 riscuri nu se vor concretiza, economiile europene \u0219i nord-americane ar trebui s\u0103 revin\u0103 la o func\u021bionare aproape normal\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul verii.<\/p>\n

Conform sursei citate, \u00een prognozele de cre\u0219tere se observ\u0103 c\u00e2teva modific\u0103ri. Revizuirea ascendent\u0103 a cre\u0219terii globale a\u0219teptat\u0103 \u00een 2021 (+5,6%, +0,5 puncte comparativ cu precedentul barometru Coface) este \u00een mare parte datorat\u0103 Statelor Unite (+ 6,5% \u00een acest an), a c\u0103rei economie a continuat s\u0103 surprind\u0103 favorabil din vara anului trecut. Aceste perspective de cre\u0219tere se reflect\u0103 \u0219i \u00een comer\u021bul mondial. Astfel, dup\u0103 o sc\u0103dere de 5% a volumului anul trecut, pentru anul acesta Coface prognozeaz\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 11%.<\/p>\n

\u00cen SUA, implementarea planului de infrastructur\u0103 anun\u021bat de Joe Biden va aduce beneficii multor sectoare de activitate dac\u0103 va fi adoptat, \u00een timp ce \u00een Europa lansarea fondurilor de stimulare anun\u021bate \u00een iulie 2020 va avea un impact diferen\u021biat asupra economiilor \u0219i va \u00eendeplini mai multe scopuri: sus\u021binerea cererii, accelerarea redres\u0103rii \u0219i promovarea dezvolt\u0103rii \u00een sectoarele de cre\u0219tere.<\/p>\n

Cu toate acestea, pentru companii se a\u0219teapt\u0103 o cre\u0219tere a costurilor de produc\u021bie: pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 lipsa persistent\u0103 a anumitor componente electronice, aceasta afecteaz\u0103 \u0219i costurile de transport, precum \u0219i pre\u021burile materiilor prime care vor r\u00e2m\u00e2ne ridicate.<\/p>\n

Economiile emergente: cererea intern\u0103 constr\u00e2ns\u0103 de stop-go \u0219i infla\u021bie<\/strong><\/p>\n

De la \u00eenceputul lunii aprilie, situa\u021bia sanitar\u0103 a r\u0103mas problematic\u0103 \u00een mai multe \u021b\u0103ri din America Latin\u0103 (\u00een special \u00een Brazilia \u0219i Argentina) \u0219i \u00een India. Cre\u0219terea masiv\u0103 a num\u0103rului de infec\u021bii a fost, de asemenea, observat\u0103 \u00een mai multe \u021b\u0103ri asiatice (de exemplu \u00een Malaysia, Thailanda, Coreea \u0219i Singapore), indicatorii de mobilitate indic\u00e2nd o activitate economic\u0103 mai sc\u0103zut\u0103 \u00een aceste zone. Num\u0103rul persoanelor infectate a crescut rapid \u0219i \u00een Africa \u0219i Rusia la \u00eenceputul verii, \u00een timp ce lucrurile stau mai bine \u00een Europa Central\u0103 \u0219i de Est, Orientul Mijlociu \u0219i Turcia.<\/p>\n

Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 contextul sanitar, cre\u0219terea infla\u021biei (+8,1% an-la-an \u00een Brazilia, maximul ultimilor de 5 ani) \u0219i \u00een\u0103sprirea ulterioar\u0103 a anumitor politici monetare vor limita probabil revenirea cererii interne. \u021a\u0103rile \u00een care importurile de materiale au o pondere important\u0103 \u00een total importuri vor fi afectate de cre\u0219terea semnificativ\u0103 a pre\u021burilor. Este cazul Chinei, ale c\u0103rei importuri de materii prime reprezint\u0103 mai mult de 30% din totalul achizi\u021biilor sale de bunuri str\u0103ine. Cre\u0219terea brusc\u0103 a pre\u021burilor la produc\u0103tor (+9% an-la-an, maximul ultimilor 12 ani) alimenteaz\u0103 cre\u0219terea infla\u021biei \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni.<\/p>\n

Cre\u0219terea puternic\u0103 a riscului politic legat\u0103 de accelerarea infla\u021biei \u00een contextul crizei sanitare<\/strong><\/p>\n

Riscurile infla\u021bioniste au fost de interes \u00een ultimele luni. \u00cen acest context, Coface indic\u0103 o cre\u0219tere puternic\u0103 a riscului politic \u00een \u00eentreaga lume, \u00een special \u00een \u021b\u0103rile emergente, pe fondul deterior\u0103rii nivelului de trai \u0219i a puterii de cump\u0103rare, precum \u0219i al cre\u0219terii inegalit\u0103\u021bilor observate \u00een urma crizei COVID-19. \u00cen acest stadiu, condi\u021biile nu conduc neap\u0103rat la revolte populare care r\u0103m\u00e2n limitate de capacitatea oamenilor de a se mobiliza.<\/p>\n

\u00cen 2020, indicele de risc social a crescut brusc (+5 puncte) la 51% la nivel global, ating\u00e2nd cel mai \u00eenalt nivel \u00eenregistrat vreodat\u0103. \u00cen ciuda numeroaselor m\u0103suri de sprijin fiscal \u0219i monetar, 140 din cele 160 de \u021b\u0103ri evaluate au \u00eenregistrat o sc\u0103dere a PIB-ului anul trecut. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, rata \u0219omajului a crescut \u00een 145 din aceste 160 de \u021b\u0103ri. Cre\u0219terea acestui risc este mai accentuat\u0103 \u00een economiile cu venituri mari, care au un nivel de risc ini\u021bial mai sc\u0103zut. Cu toate acestea, \u00een ciuda evolu\u021biilor, \u021b\u0103rile cu cel mai ridicat nivel de risc social r\u0103m\u00e2n: Yemen, Siria, Irak, Venezuela, Libia, Liban, Sudan, Iran, Algeria \u0219i Arabia Saudit\u0103.<\/p>\n

Indicele conflictului, a doua component\u0103 a Indicelui riscului politic Coface, este calculat \u00een func\u021bie de num\u0103rul conflictelor, intensitatea acestora, num\u0103rul victimelor \u0219i durat\u0103. \u00cen 2020, Azerbaidjanul \u0219i Etiopia au \u00eenregistrat o cre\u0219tere a acestui indice din cauza conflictelor observate pe teritoriile lor. Sunt urmate de \u021b\u0103ri care lupt\u0103 \u00eempotriva terorismului sau care sunt \u00een r\u0103zboi civil, precum Republica Central African\u0103, Sudan \u0219i Mali. (C. \u0218.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La 18 luni de la \u00eenceperea pandemiei, accesul la vaccinare este principalul factor care stabile\u0219te ritmul vie\u021bii de zi cu zi a oamenilor \u0219i al economiei globale, concluzioneaz\u0103 cel mai recent Barometru realizat de Coface …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-din-lumea-afacerilor","issue-serie-noua-nr-11-21-07-2021-17-08-2021"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBarometru Coface: O lume \u00een schimbare - Afacerea<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revista-afacerea.ro\/afacerea\/barometru-coface-o-lume-in-schimbare\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Barometru Coface: O lume \u00een schimbare - 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